Trends in heavy electric vehicles – Global EV Outlook 2024 – Analysis - IEA (2024)

China produces the largest selection of battery electric heavy-duty vehicles

Chinese OEMs currently produce by far the largest number of models of battery electric HDVs – 430 in total – with a particular focus on buses suitable for urban public transport, which make up almost 40% of all models.2 In 2021 alone, Chinese OEMs released almost 150 bus models, providing more choice and covering more applications in what was already the world’s largest electric bus market. Since 2021, the number of additional new models has continued to grow, but with a more even distribution across different segments – over 65 new models for buses, and around 40 each for medium-duty and heavy-duty trucks – thereby enabling wider electrification. A significant number of models is now available in each segment in China.

North American OEMs produce a far smaller number of battery electric models – over 170 – with a greater emphasis on the medium-duty truck market, which accounts for more than 60% of all models. New brands such as Rizon are targeting the electric medium-duty segment in North America, where despite their higher upfront costs, electric trucks are already competitive with diesel trucks in terms of total cost of ownershiplifetime costs, especially when charged at depot as opposed to higher-cost public charging. Costs are even more competitive when factoring in incentives available in the UnitedStates and Canada. Though both the UnitedStates and Canada also have policy incentives specifically targeting buses, they have relatively small public transport markets and, as a consequence, buses suitable for urban public transport make up just over 10% of all models. Instead, OEMs have targeted the school bus niche, producing nine different models excluding minibuses.

Despite producing a lower number of battery electric models overall, at around 120, European OEMs offer the most even distribution of models across segments. They also have the highest share of heavy-duty trucks, with more than 20% of all models. This has allowed European OEMs, in particular the Volvo group (which includes the Mack, Renault, and Dongfeng (joint venture) truck brands), to gain a large share of not only the European, but also the North American heavy-duty electric truck market. European OEMs also produce a significant number of niche vehicles such as refuse trucks (around 10% of all models), which – like medium-duty trucks – are already cost-competitive with their ICE counterparts.

On average, individual Chinese OEMs produce more models across segments, which differentiates Chinese OEMs from those in other regions. Only about half of Chinese OEMs produce models for a single segment, compared to around 70% in North America and Europe.

Model availability is a key indicator of the growing maturity of the battery electric HDV market, but the number of OEMs is also important for assessing competition and ability to meet future demand.

The number of OEMs producing electric HDVs in China trebled between 2020 and 2023, from 12 to 36, in response to increasing sales of electric trucks domestically, as well as increasing electric bus sales abroad. In addition to growth in the number of Chinese OEMs, companies such as BYD, Skywell, Dongfeng and Foton have also expanded their offerings, with models in the bus, MD truck, and HD truck segments, offering potential advantages in terms of economies of scale and supply chains. The strength of the domestic market may also have allowed Chinese firms to build more robust supply chains.

North America also experienced an almost threefold increase in the number of HDV OEMs between 2020 and 2023, from 16 to 45. Early support in states such as California and anticipation of national policies supported investment in HDV manufacturing, which was later boosted by demand incentives and regulations. United States-based OEMs typically specialise in models for a smaller number of segments than Chinese OEMs. Only Lion offers vehicles in the bus, MD truck, and HD truck categories, along with Exro’s recently acquired SEA Electric, which builds vehicles for different applications by adapting its powertrain to glider chassis platforms from other OEMs.

Europe had the highest number of HDV OEMs in 2020, but still saw a 50% increase between 2020 and 2023 to reach 36, the same number as China but less than the United States. Established OEMs such as Volvo Trucks, MAN, Mercedes, and Quantron offer vehicles in three or more segments. This wide range of offerings, coupled with an already strong position in the global market, and relatively low sales shares in Europe prior to 2023, meant there was less space for new entrants to compete.

Manufacturers in the rest of the world have not responded to the electric HDV opportunity in the same way, mirroring the slower uptake of electric HDVs to date and fewer supportive policies than in leading electric HDV markets. Of the OEMs outside of China, North America and Europe, nine produce models in the bus segment alone, with India’s Tata Motors producing both buses and MD trucks. Korean OEM Hyundai produces only FCEV HDVs, while only three Japanese OEMs feature in the database.

Trends in heavy electric vehicles – Global EV Outlook 2024 – Analysis - IEA (2024)


What are the projections for electric vehicles? ›

Electric Vehicles - United States

The Electric Vehicles market in the United States is projected to reach a revenue of US$82.8bn in 2024. It is expected to show an annual growth rate (CAGR 2024-2028) of 18.20%, resulting in a projected market volume of US$161.6bn by 2028.

Can electric vehicles be a success in India GD? ›

Yes, India is ready:

Accordingly, manufacturing and using the electric cars is not a big hurdle. According to a report by NITI Aayog, India can save 64% of anticipated passenger road-based mobility-related energy demand and 37% of carbon emissions in 2030 by pursuing a shared, electric, and connected mobility future.

How many EV sales per year? ›

How Many Electric Vehicles Are Sold in the U.S.? Electric car sales have taken off in the U.S. since 2020. About 1.6 million EVs were sold in the U.S. in 2023 — a 60% increase from the 1 million sold nationwide in 2022. The U.S. accounted for 9.7% of all new EV registrations worldwide in 2022.

When did electric cars become popular? ›

Between the late '90s and 2010, the push for electric cars became very strong and almost every mainstream carmaker was giving it a go in one way or another, whether it was through fully electric cars or hybrids.

What is the outlook for EV sales in 2024? ›

The latest Outlook, published today, finds that global electric car sales are set to remain robust in 2024, reaching around 17 million by the end of the year.

What is the global EV demand forecast? ›

Global EV market forecasted to reach 17.5 million units with solid growth of 27% in 2024. The latest Canalys research predicts sales of global electric vehicles (EVs) to grow 29% and reach 13.7 million units, equating to a penetration rate of 17.1% in 2023.

What are the disadvantages of electric vehicles? ›

What are the downsides to electric cars?
  • Their batteries need rare metals. ...
  • Making electric cars creates more emissions. ...
  • They are only as green as their power sources. ...
  • Electric cars can be expensive to buy. ...
  • You can't drive as far in an electric car. ...
  • There aren't enough charging points.

Why don't electric cars have gears? ›

Electric cars don't require multi-speed transmissions because of the so-called “engine” in an electric car, an electric motor. While internal combustion engines require multiple gears with different ratios for power output, electric motors produce a consistent amount of torque at any given RPM within a specific range.

What is the best selling EV in the world? ›

The Tesla Model Y is #1 again in the electric vehicle market. Registrations were up 63% year over year (YoY) in January, to over a million units. China's market was the main driver of growth. Share-wise, 2024 started with plugin vehicles getting 16% share of the global auto market (10% BEV).

Who sells the most electric vehicles? ›

Tesla currently dominates the EV market. Sales across its four models — Y, 3, X, and S— represent nearly three-fourths of total 2021 EV sales.

Who has the most market share in electric vehicles? ›

Currently, Tesla holds a 19.9% share of the market, closely followed by BYD with 17.1%. In 2022, the Chinese automaker overtook Tesla as the top producer of EVs, when non-BEVs are included in sales totals. It produced 1.8 million vehicles compared to Tesla's 1.3 million.

What is the oldest electric car? ›

German engineer Andreas Flocken built the first real electric car in 1888. Electric trains were also used to transport coal out of mines, as their motors did not use up precious oxygen. Before the pre-eminence of internal combustion engines, electric automobiles also held many speed and distance records.

Why did electric cars disappear? ›

1920 — 1935. Better roads and discovery of cheap Texas crude oil help contribute to the decline in electric vehicles. By 1935, they have all but disappeared.

What is the longest lasting car model in production? ›

Cars With the Longest Production Runs of All Time

What is the forecast for electric vehicles in 2030? ›

The EV-Ready India Dashboard estimates EVs to grow at a Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 45.5% between CY 2022 and CY 2030, increasing from annual sales of 6,90,550 electric two-wheelers (E-2Ws) in 2022 to 1,39,36,691 units in 2030.

Will all cars be electric by 2050? ›

California is ahead of other states for a number of reasons. As you mentioned, it can establish more protective vehicle emissions regulations than the federal government, and it now requires manufacturers and dealers to sell an increasing number of zero emission vehicles, culminating in 100 percent of sales by 2035.

Do all cars have to be electric by 2030? ›

As part of the Advanced Clean Cars II regulations, all new passenger cars, trucks, and SUVs sold in California will be zero-emission vehicles by 2035. In October 2023, staff launched a new effort to consider amendments to the Advanced Clean Cars II regulations.

What percentage of cars will be electric in the future? ›

S&P Global Mobility forecasts electric vehicle sales in the United States could reach 40 percent of total passenger car sales by 2030, and more optimistic projections foresee electric vehicle sales surpassing 50 percent by 2030.


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